Three weeks before the eruption of the “jasmine revolution” in Tunisia, ARI had asked M. Salah Eddin Jorshi, the well-known Tunisian researcher, to write a policy brief describing the evolution of the political system in Tunisia and his vision of a possible transition towards democracy. While transformation was not the scenario he or others foresaw, this sober analysis provides a valuable account of the internal and external factors that made of Tunisia a serious candidate for a stable democracy.